Apple Fall 2017 Event Predictions

Now that Apple has announced that its Fall 2017 event will be held at the Steve Jobs Theater on September 12th, at 10AM Pacific Time, it is time for me to make my predictions for what we will see. Even though Apple does hold other events throughout the year, its biggest has been the September event. The reason for the attention to the September event is that it has been the tradition to show off the new iPhones at the event. In years past, the September event has been used for Music. The iPhone makes up 60% of Apple's revenue, so that is where the most attention is paid, not only by the tech press, but mainstream media as well. Let us dive into my predictions.

iPhones

I think there will be three new iPhone versions unveiled at the event. The successors to the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, which will be named the iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus. These will use the same form factor as the previous versions. The biggest changes will be from the addition of the Dual camera for the iPhone 7s, which will allow Portrait Mode on the smaller size. I think the processor will be an A11 Fusion, the next generation of processor and the two phones will have parity, in everything except for size. This is akin to the way the iPad Pros are now positioned. This will just be a continuation of that model. I think the sizes will remain the same at 32GB, 128GB, and 256GB. Alongside this, I think the colors will also remain the same as Silver, Gold, Rose Gold, and Space Gray. The prices will also remain the same at $649 for the 32GB iPhone 7s, and each increase in size is $100 more. The same will be for the iPhone 7s Plus, starting at $769 for the 32GB, and $100 more for each size above that. I give this a 95% probability of occurring.

New iPhone Form Factor

The third new phone will be an all new model. This is the rumored "Unicorn" iPhone. As an aside, the idea of naming it "Unicorn" is dumb, it will only be a "Unicorn" phone until it is released and then the next iPhone will be the "Unicorn" phone. You can absolutely call it the "Ferrari" phone, or "D22", or "iPhone 8" or even "iPhone Pro". For the sake of these predictions, I will call it the iPhone Pro. The reason I think it may be called the iPhone Pro is it allows Apple to get away from assigning a number to it, and instead just call all versions the same name.

I think the iPhone Pro will sport everything that has been rumored, as well as leaked from the HomePod firmware. The iPhone Pro will sport an "edge to edge" display, an A11 Fusion processor, and a True Tone OLED Display that supports Apple's ProMotion technology, similar to the iPad Pros. Along with all of this, there will be an improved dual camera system that will be even better at detecting objects and may even be able to have a new setting for automatically doing a "Portrait" mode of a Photo, much like you are able to do now with HDR photos. I give this aspect a 25% chance. That is not all with the camera. I'm also thinking that it will be able to do 3X optical zoom, up from the 2X optical zoom on the iPhone 7s Plus. The rationale behind this is that the 10.5-inch and 2nd Generation 12.9-inch iPad Pros both have 3x optical zoom capability. The last new feature of the phone, which may also make its way into the iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus is 4K record at 60 frames per second. All of Apple's cameras have been able to do 4K at 30 frames per second, but having a "Pro" iPhone capable of 4K at 60fps would be a great feature. I know I would use it.

As the rumors have indicated, I think Touch ID will not be available on the iPhone Pro, yet there will be a replacement, BioMetric detection through Face Detection. The last new feature that I think will come to the "iPhone Pro" will be wireless charging. Apple already has some wireless charging available with the Apple Watch. The lightning port will not go away, as it is still necessary for many things. However, the ability to charge wirelessly will be built-in and a wireless charging dock will be an extra cost. My guess is $99 or even $129 for the dock. If this does come to fruition, whatever standard that Apple chooses, if they do not do their own, will ultimately become the de-facto standard since Apple ships so many phones.

The hard part to predict with an iPhone Pro is the price. The rumors indicate that it will be $1200. While I can see Apple charging that for a phone, that is most likely the top end model. There are two possibilities. Let us look at both of these.

The first possibility is that the iPhone Pro will come in three sizes; 64GB, 256GB, and 512GB. Again, this is similar to the iPad Pro and these are the sizes that the iPad Pros come in. In this scenario I think the iPhone Pro will also start at $899 or $949, and be $100 more for each size increase. I am speculating this because Apple likes to give surprises and pricing is the one thing that Apple can decide to change at the absolute last minute. A similar pricing surprise occurred with the introduction of the original iPad. Before it was announced, the rumors indicated it would cost $999, and it came in at $499.

The second possibility, which after thinking about it more seems the more likely course. It is entirely possible that Apple may not do a "low end" size and will only make the iPhone Pro available in two sizes; 256GB and 512GB. This would be akin to the "Jet Black" and "Product Red" iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus models. These do not come in 32GB versions. If Apple does truly want this to be a "Professional" phone, then only having two sizes would make sense. In this scenario, the pricing may be more inline with the rumors. The pricing could come in at $1049 or $1069 for the 256GB and $1149 or $1169 for the 512GB version.

I give the overall chance of an iPhone Pro at 90% with the automatic "Portrait Mode" pictures at 25%, object detection at 75%, no Touch ID at 90%, and a new biometric option at 90%. I give 4K at 60 frames per second is 50% chance of occurring and I give wireless charging a 50% chance of occurring. I give my speculation on the pricing on the iPhone Pro at 60%. Now that the iPhones have been covered let us turn to the Apple Watch.

Apple Watch

The Apple Watch has slowly become a more focused product, which is the opposite of the iPhone. The Apple Watch is primarily focused on fitness, and one of the current downsides is that those who want to go and exercise usually have to bring their iPhones along with them. My guess is that this will change with the addition of an LTE version of the Apple Watch. This will be the biggest change to the Apple Watch, besides the inclusion of a new, even more power efficient S3 processor.

I also think that there will be some new Watch Bands, these will have slightly different colors and the existing bands will support the Apple Watch. I think the pricing will be the same as the existing Apple Watch, at $369 for the 38MM, and $399 for the 42MM. I think the LTE versions will be $499 and $529 for each respective size. This would be the same as what it cost to put LTE into an iPad, $130 more. With the introduction of this model, the Series 2 will become the "lower end" model, and drop to $269 for the 38MM and $299 for the 42MM.

I give the likelihood of a new Apple Watch at 90% and a separate LTE version at 90%, the Apple Watch Pricing at 80% and new Apple Watch Bands at 95%. That is all there is for the Apple Watch, let us move to the Apple TV.

Apple TV

The Apple TV is an interesting product. Apple had hoped that the new version of TV would be application based, and while they are not entirely wrong, I do not think it has exploded as Apple might have hoped. Despite that, I think there will be an updated Apple TV unveiled. I think it will have an A9 processor, and support 4K and High Dynamic Range content. It will support resolutions of 3840 by 2160, which is double the vertical resolution of the previous generation.

I think the storage sizes will be reduced from two, which were 32GB and 64GB, down to just one, a 64GB model. There will still be a 32GB Model, but that will be the 4th Generation Apple TV. The price on the 4th Generation will drop to $119, and the 5th Generation will be $149. I think this may be necessary to be able to compete with other streaming boxes. You can get a 4K Roku for $60, or an Amazon Fire TV for $90. Continuing to charge almost a $100 more, while it may make sense in terms of margins, will not get you new customers as quickly as if you have a compelling hardware offering. If Apple truly sees services as the place for continued growth, then the hardware prices should start to reflect that. Combine this with the rumored $1 Billion that Apple is putting into original Television and it could prove to be a good start to bringing more people into the Apple ecosystem.

Since Apple does not have its own catalog of content yet, it will need to be supplemented. That is why the release date for the Amazon Prime Video app will be announced on stage. It is already 100% certain that it will come, as it was announced back at Apple's World Wide Developer Conference Keynote.

I give the likelihood of a new Apple TV coming at 90%, Amazon Prime Video app at 100%, and pricing at 75%. It is entirely possible that Apple does not

HomePod

Apple's newest foray into Music and voice is the HomePod. It was unveiled at Apple's 2017 World Wide Developer Conference keynote as being available in December, I think Apple will provide a bit more information, possibly even a month in which it can pre-ordered. I give the chance of this happening at 50%.

macOS High Sierra and iOS 11

While iOS is now the primary focus not only for Apple, due to profits, but also for developers, the Mac and macOS does not get as much love. Apple will announce the availability date for macOS High Sierra. My guess is that it will be the same day as iOS 11 availability. So my guess is September 19th at the release date for both of these. It is possible that macOS High Sierra might not be released until later though. So I give this an 80% chance of occurring.

New Mac Hardware

There is a very very small chance that new Mac Hardware will be discussed, as in a 5% chance. The only Mac that has not been updated this year is the Mac Mini. If Apple mentions it on stage, it will be very brief. In all likelihood. Any Mac Mini update will simply be a press release or even just a change on the website and nothing more.

Recap

So, to recap, here is what I am thinking will happen at the September 12th Event. There is just about a week until the event, in the days after the event I will post my prediction results. There are a total of twenty two predictions, so we will see how well I do.